Politics

[hopeful traveller]

Good luck with that. I believe "you" will lose to Labour.

Official Conservative Party member; I have the right to use "we".

[tubeguru]

Good luck with that. I believe "you" will lose to Labour.

Official Conservative Party member; I have the right to use "we".

OK, you (without the quotes) will lose to Labour.

[hopeful traveller]

Good luck with that. I believe "you" will lose to Labour.

Official Conservative Party member; I have the right to use "we".

OK, you (without the quotes) will lose to Labour.

How? Labour's lead peaked at 16 in an anomalous poll. It had CON 26%, LAB 42%. Kinnock lost from 24 ahead.

[tubeguru]

How am I supposed to know? None of us know, because none of us know what's going to happen in the next two years to affect the polls.

But if the Tories only just managed to scrape into a coalition last time, I don't feel they're going to sweep to outright victory next time, especially as people remember the issues that papers put on their front pages on election day. The coalition might be generally "successful", but it's hardly a dazzling success, is it? Mind you, I admit that Labour don't exactly have the most charismatic of leaders, so that might count against them.

I have no time for opinion polls - they mean nothing.

[tubeguru]

Mind you, having just said that I don't care for opinion polls, here are some opinion polls!

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html - Labour victory.

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/fac ... ably/10496 - Labour don't win.

http://www.electionwatch.co.uk/ - Labour victory.

My point being that no one has a bloody clue. We can't really extrapolate opinion polls from 2012 into 2015 because, as I previous mentioned, opinions CHANGE. I traditionall vote Conservative, but I could easily change to Labour if I felt they deserved my vote. Look at what happened between 1992 and 1997. The day before the 1992 election, the polls had Labour winning, but ON THE DAY, the voters went blue. And then, slowly but surely, the country went red over the next five years. I'm sure no one could have predicted the 1997 landslide two years before polling day.

On top of all this, I humbly submit that your predictions are full of bias, and therefore carry even less credibility that the "man on the street".

[The Raven]

I totally agree with you here Tubeguru. All opinion polls should all be taken with a pinch of salt. Even in the last election weren't the Lib Dems predicted to come 2nd in the popular vote only a few days before the election?

[tubeguru]

Yep, the Lib Dems were going to sweep across Jeremy Vine's board, turning everything orange. And what happened? They did NOTHING. In the end, all the talk of people voting Lib Dem evaporated. And this was AFTER Nick Clegg pushed his AV agenda forward - something you would have thought would gain him votes.

[The Raven]

Only prediction I'm willing to make about the next general election is that the support for the Lib Dems will evaporate, meaning no hung parliaments.

[tubeguru]

Only prediction I'm willing to make about the next general election is that the support for the Lib Dems will evaporate, meaning no hung parliaments.

The last thing we need in 2015 is another coalition. Blue or red ONLY.

[Sam]

What about GREEN?

[tubeguru]

If you want to put a tenner on the Green Party to win the election, feel free.

[Cheshire Cat]

What about GREEN?

Wht not? Disaffected LibDem voters have got to go somewhere. I've voted LibDem (or Lberal) most of my adult life, but cannot contemplate doing so while there is a chance they'll let the Tories in again. Lord knows how I'll vote next time - might have to be the Monster Raving Loonies. NONE of the major parties represents my views any more. Not that my vote counts for anything in any case - I live in a Tory safe seat, so the monkey in the blue rosette will be elected come what may. Perhaps I'll have to move to Scotland and vote SNP.

But TG is right - a lot can happen in two years.What disasters will afflict each of the parties? Will the Tory vote evaporate to UKIP? Will Osbourne finally realise that the deficit cannot come down without economic growth? Will Ed Milliband gain a personality? We'll only know who will win when the votes have actually been counted!

[tubeguru]

The rise of UKIP is of concern. They're the almost-electable face of the far-right. People may think they're being "patriotic" by going down that route, but the party attracts some unsavoury characters.

[Cheshire Cat]

The rise of UKIP is of concern. They're the almost-electable face of the far-right. People may think they're being "patriotic" by going down that route, but the party attracts some unsavoury characters.

I can't see them being popular enough to be elected in large numbers by 2015. After all, they are largely a one-trick pony and, however vehement someone's views on Europe, their general election vote is going to be influenced by UK issues, not Europe. And Farage is a pantomime character (mind you, we said that about Boris). They may split the right-wing vote, though.

[tubeguru]

I can't see anyone being electable in large numbers in 2015 except the Conservatives and Labour. The Lib Dems are imploding, and the far-right is far too fragmented to be effectual (this being on account of them all being beer-swilling racist chavs).

I think you're safe betting on either red or blue in two years' time.