Managing Expectations

[GillagePeople]

Hi all,

0-time Tube Challenger here with an FNC attempt pencilled in for Friday 28th April (please tell me if you think there's anything wrong with/bad about this date, it can change)

Got a route, timings etc all planned out and I'm currently at a stage where I'm feeling relatively confident about how the day *should* go down.

This is a hard question but I was hoping for a rough percentage on how many of your attempts have reached completion? I'm not at all concerned with the time for my first attempt but I feel like I'd be really quite gutted if we didn't complete, but also I know it's a serious possibility.

Was just hoping for a bit more clarity on where my expectations of completion likelihood should be. I know it's impossible to exactly remember how many completions Vs non you've had, and it's all context dependent etc but any information you can give is appreciated

P.S Knocking out Olympia early so don't factor that in for ending the run

Cheers everyone

[RJSRdg]

From me, no completions and no non-completions (yet!)

[al]

My stats are misleading, as although I've made over 20 attempts, I've only completed 3 or 4 times. This is because my second completion was a decent time, and I didn't bother slogging on to the end if I knew it would be a slower time than I already had.

If you can think on your feet to deal sensibly with the minor setbacks you will probably get, and stop them snowballing, then I'd say you are at least 85% likely to complete. It is reasonably unusual to get a total showstopper.

Good luck!

[Going Underground]

Around 25 attempts, no idea on completions, 2 x GWR never followed the planned route on any of them !

Basically a day never, ever goes as planned

[GillagePeople]

My stats are misleading, as although I've made over 20 attempts, I've only completed 3 or 4 times. This is because my second completion was a decent time, and I didn't bother slogging on to the end if I knew it would be a slower time than I already had.

If you can think on your feet to deal sensibly with the minor setbacks you will probably get, and stop them snowballing, then I'd say you are at least 85% likely to complete. It is reasonably unusual to get a total showstopper.

Good luck!

Mm this is what I thought might be the case. I'm doing it with one other person but they don't know much about the Tube, so the route, planning, on the day decisions are all on me. I'd say I'm at least a mid-level Tube nerd, but rearranging routes in the context of Tube Challenge, rather than just a trip from A to B, is not something I feel confident on.

Guess I'll try to plan obvious splits in the route that can be rejigged, maybe Moorgate/Liverpool St where either Central and Victoria can be done or High Barnet branch and Piccadilly off the top of my head.

Time to get even more meticulous

[GillagePeople]

Around 25 attempts, no idea on completions, 2 x GWR never followed the planned route on any of them !

Basically a day never, ever goes as planned

Damn, how far off the plan did you go on a world record run? Surely not much? Honestly just assumed world records always came on a day where everything went to plan

[tubeguru]

Around 25 attempts, no idea on completions, 2 x GWR never followed the planned route on any of them !

Basically a day never, ever goes as planned

Damn, how far off the plan did you go on a world record run? Surely not much? Honestly just assumed world records always came on a day where everything went to plan

The number of people who have done full network challenges who do NOT have a world record far exceeds those who do ...

[GillagePeople]

Around 25 attempts, no idea on completions, 2 x GWR never followed the planned route on any of them !

Basically a day never, ever goes as planned

Damn, how far off the plan did you go on a world record run? Surely not much? Honestly just assumed world records always came on a day where everything went to plan

The number of people who have done full network challenges who do NOT have a world record far exceeds those who do ...

To clarify I meant going to plan was a necessary condition for a world record, not a sufficient one. Obviously not every FNC that goes to plan breaks the world record aha, but I did (wrongly) think every FNC world record did go to plan

[jrparkin]

I've done just one attempt and that didn't go to plan at all. From having to start at Northwood not Chesham and then the first train at Rayners Lane was a Metropolitan line train not Piccadilly line one. This did result in the end me visiting only 243 stations and not a potential 264 as I couldn't think on my feet.

I wasn't going for a WR chiefly because I'm not as fit as I should be for these types of challenges so can't run long distances but my day could have gone so much better if I hadn't been too wedded to 'the plan'

Luckily I'm doing the Vienna U Bahn in May and will take the lessons I learned in London onto my new challenge

[Golf]

Around 25 attempts, no idea on completions, 2 x GWR never followed the planned route on any of them !

Basically a day never, ever goes as planned

Damn, how far off the plan did you go on a world record run? Surely not much? Honestly just assumed world records always came on a day where everything went to plan

i cant say that everything went perfectly in the world record attempt but i have at least 20 completions others have gone to pot or gone to pub or just been research attempts and not followed through. but the main thing is i did complete on only 2nd attempt i would have done 1st if i had known more information at time.

[Going Underground]

Around 25 attempts, no idea on completions, 2 x GWR never followed the planned route on any of them !

Basically a day never, ever goes as planned

Damn, how far off the plan did you go on a world record run? Surely not much? Honestly just assumed world records always came on a day where everything went to plan

Quite a bit but it was a long time ago and somewhere I will have the log books with planned and actual routes taken

[Nigel]

For me, five completions from seven attempts. Nothing ever goes completely to plan and I used to plan a lot, with lots of contingency scenarios and rules on which route option to take at certain key decision points.

[Lunaticonthegrass]

100% completion rate for me!

I've only attempted 1 FNC. I got about an hour in before my planned Oylmpia train didn't turn up and I had to wait for the next one. I had various other delays during the day and ended up finishing more than 90 minutes behind my planned schedule. I didn't have the confidence to re-route on the fly then (not sure I do now even) so I stuck to my route and sucked up the delays. (The major delays all came when there was nothing I could do about them anyway, like being stuck at Woodford for half a hour waiting for a Hailnault train.)

There's always a chance that things will go horribly wrong, but I agree that it's unlikely to not be able to complete.

28th April seems fine. Good time of year weather-wise. Central line isn't doing night tube that evening, but they should still be running trains until a little after midnight.

Whatever happens, have fun!

[Sam]

Around 25 attempts, no idea on completions, 2 x GWR never followed the planned route on any of them !

Basically a day never, ever goes as planned

Damn, how far off the plan did you go on a world record run? Surely not much? Honestly just assumed world records always came on a day where everything went to plan

The number of people who have done full network challenges who do NOT have a world record far exceeds those who do ...

To clarify I meant going to plan was a necessary condition for a world record, not a sufficient one. Obviously not every FNC that goes to plan breaks the world record aha, but I did (wrongly) think every FNC world record did go to plan

Absolutely not!! I am not sure any attempts ever truly go to plan, just by the nature of the unpredictability of the underground network.

[RJSRdg]

I am of the understanding (and I'm sure either of them will correct me if I'm wrong) that Andi and Steve's record run went to plan apart from the last train being nine minutes late.