Politics

[tubeguru]

Interestingly, I've just been reading the Daily Mail's piece on the Commons vote this evening on gay marriage.

Among the general homophobic comments was a trend, with a vast majority of people saying, "I'm never voting Conservative again - I'm voting UKIP." Now you might think these are the rantings of a bunch of bigoted morons (and you'd be right), but papers such as the Sun, Mirror, Star, Mail and Express have large readerships, who generally follow the same trends when it comes to public morality.

On the other hand, the Tories may win support following this move, but it's hard to say if the people going to the right will be balanced out by people coming from the left. Either way, in the short term I think the Conservatives may suffer because of this vote.

[The Raven]

I can't see anyone being electable in large numbers in 2015 except the Conservatives and Labour. The Lib Dems are imploding, and the far-right is far too fragmented to be effectual (this being on account of them all being beer-swilling racist chavs).

I think you're safe betting on either red or blue in two years' time.

Mind you, worryingly both the BNP and UKIP have increased their percentage of votes they've received every general election since the 1990s.

[tubeguru]

The BNP are finished - they've got no money, and they lost all the gains they made. UKIP is the party of choice for today's racist-dressed-up-as-a-patriot.

[hopeful traveller]

Peter Kellner wrote something somewhere, but I can't find the link for it any more.

It said that the left and the right don't change.

At present, disillusioned Liberal Democrat voters (who increased their share of the vote in 2010 but lost five seats) say they will vote for the other "left-wing" party, Labour. Similarly, disillusioned Conservative voters say they will vote for UKIP. I did an Excel graph which made a prediction of what would happen in politics (and the opinion polls) between now and then. It says that the Liberal Democrat resurgence which is currently being made will continue. However, the Conservatives have promised a referendum on Europe and are the only party to do so. Labour and the Lib Dems want more of the same. UKIP want to leave altogether, and we want to renegotiate and have a referendum. I do think UKIP are electable, worryingly. They have been vying with the Liberal Democrats for third place in the popular vote for about a year now.

Labour need a swing of 4.7% from the Conservatives to Labour to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street.
The Conservatives need a swing of 1.9% from Labour to the Conservatives to properly elect David Cameron.

Today's opinion poll on a national scale:



(Edit: How the hell do I make this smaller?)

Those who follow me on Twitter @TheotherRB will know that I often do accurate by-election predictions, and I will do a proper one for Eastleigh now (but, of course, it will be revised):

Liberal Democrat: 31.3% (-15.2%)
Conservative: 29.4% (-9.9%)
Labour: 26.4% (+16.8%)
UKIP: 10.5% (+6.9%)
Others: 2.4% (+1.4%)

So I think the Liberal Democrats could hold on at the moment, but only just. That's a swing of just 2.7% to the Conservatives. I do think that we could take it, though. That's an almighty close battle. Maybe even three-way: Labour are coming back (ARGH!) in the south.

[tubeguru]

How did you produce that image?

[hopeful traveller]

How did you produce that image?

I put in the latest YouGov opinion poll into the "Advanced Swingo" on UK Polling Report (basically, adding parameters for Scotland and Wales). I then Print Screened and pasted in a Powerpoint file. I cropped accordingly and used the "save as picture" option, with it titled as: "It goes ding when there's stuff.jpg". I then uploaded it onto TinyPic, which converts it into a [img].[/img]code.

Edit: Forum parameters playing havoc with this post.

[tubeguru]

HT's Twitter prediction for Eastleigh by-election:

Prediction for Eastleigh (and this is purely mathematical, no spin involved): CON GAIN Eastleigh with a swing of 4.5%. #youhearditherefirst

Actual result (with minor parties excluded):

Mike Thornton (Liberal Democrat) 13,342 (32.06%, -14.48%)
Diane James (UKIP) 11,571 (27.80%, +24.20%)
Maria Hutchings (Conservative) 10,559 (25.37%, -13.96%)
John O'Farrell (Labour) 4,088 (9.82%, +0.22%)

[MylesHSG]

Haha I loled so hard...pushed into 3rd place! Deary me HT.

[Iain]

Such accuracy! Almost as accurate as the American election prediction

[hopeful traveller]

It's still a victory for the government, a clear rejection of Sillyband, and it proves the point we've been making for ages: UKIP are no more than unelectable vote-splitters. We should have won.

[tubeguru]

The voters of Eastleigh rejected Labour last time, so it's no surprise that they did so this time. People voted for the UKIP to register a protest vote against the government. How that counts as a "victory" for the government is beyond me.

[Iain]

I'd like to congratulate Jack Hurst on his victory in today's 30th Birthday Countdown Final

[The Raven]

A true politician folks! Can make it sound like they won even when they lose.

The two parties in power both have major swings away from the 2010 result.

[tubeguru]

Yes, but we're not supposed to notice that.

[hopeful traveller]

You forget that the Liberal Democrats are in government and they won the election! It's a victory for this coalition government led by the Conservatives.