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Eurovision 2019

Posted: 13 Mar 2019, 10:57
by Soup Dragon
It's here again folks, all 41 countries have now selected their songs.
UK as usual picked the wrong song, and although it isn't awful, I just can't seeing anyone picking up the phone to vote for it.
So it will be near bottom in the Televote, we will need a huge Jury vote if we are to finish outside the bottom 5.

This looks to be a year where the minnows could do well. Iceland, Malta, Cyprus, Switzerland & The Netherlands are my top picks, and even little San Marino might even qualify for the final this year.

For those of you that think Eurovision is boring and predictable then take a look at Iceland's entry on YouTube. I'm getting similar vibes that I did in 2007 with Lordi, that the public might vote for something not typically Eurovision. If you fancy a dabble you can still get odds of 20/1 on Iceland.

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 13 Mar 2019, 12:13
by Going Underground
Good old Iceland, always outside the normal euro box :D

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 28 Mar 2019, 23:05
by Soup Dragon
Iceland's odds have already reduced from 20/1 to 12/1 for the contest. If you want to attend Eurovision 2020 I suggest that you start looking at Reykjavik hotels now! Iceland, Cyprus & Malta all have good songs this year (in my opinion) and are all well overdue a maiden win. The three nations top the list of number of entries without a win:

Cyprus - 36 entries - best finish 2nd in 2018
Iceland - 32 entries - best finish 2nd in 1999 & 2009
Malta - 32 entries - best finish 2nd in 2002 & 2005

Having listened to all the songs again and taken into account public voting and jury voting, I'm now certain of a bottom 5 finish for the UK.

If you are looking for some value and a couple of Dark Horses then I would recommend Latvia 300/1 or Estonia 125/1
You can also bet on top 10 finish, which might be a better chance of a return, Latvia 10/1 or Estonia 7/1

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 14 May 2019, 08:47
by Soup Dragon
The First Semi Final is 20:00 tonight on BBC4.

This is a really hard semi final to call. of the 17 songs there is only 1 that I'm 100% certain won't qualify, that is Montenegro.
Of the other 16 I'm only 100% on three qualifiers. Here are my predicted finishing places (Tonight we will only know who qualifies, not actual places)

1. Iceland
2. Australia
3. Greece
4. Hungary
5. Cyprus
6. Portugal
7. Czech Republic
8. Estonia
9. Belgium
10. Poland

11. Serbia
12. Belarus
13. Slovenia
14. San Marino
15. Georgia
16. Finland
17. Montenegro


I will be really shocked if Iceland, Australia & Greece don't make it through.
We won't know the actual places in the semi final until after the grand final on Saturday.

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 14 May 2019, 21:37
by hopeful traveller
As BBC Four fell off the air just after the results of Semi Final One came in (can't the BBC do anything right about Eurovision this year? First they give us 3 horrible songs to pick, then Sophie Ellis-Bextor gets sacked from the jury...)

I got 8/10 qualifiers correct - did not think Belarus or San Marino (!) would get through. Good to see Eurotrash still has its place, particularly as I become more and more of a gay stereotype.

Our song won't do well on the basis it was rejected by Sweden who have been in the top 10 every year bar one since 2011 so they have good judgement. It didn't even make Melodifestivalen - i.e. not in their shortlist... of 28...

How many will our song get?
- 0
- 0 from either jury or televote, but not both
- Under 50, I'm an optimist
- 51-100, I'm delusional
- 101-200, I think it's actually not bad
- 200-299, I think there are countries who like this regurgitated nonsense
- 300+, I haven't heard the song yet

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 15 May 2019, 07:29
by Soup Dragon
hopeful traveller wrote: โ†‘
14 May 2019, 21:37
As BBC Four fell off the air just after the results of Semi Final One came in (can't the BBC do anything right about Eurovision this year? First they give us 3 horrible songs to pick, then Sophie Ellis-Bextor gets sacked from the jury...)
Personally I quite liked "Freaks" by Jordan Clarke and thought that could do well if staged properly at the ESC finals.
As for "Bigger Than Us", it's the typical shit that the UK Public think will win Eurovision, but for me it's just an average X-Factor Winners 'type' song.

I said I was struggling with this semi-final and I only managed 6/10 which is very poor for me.
I could argue a case for all the songs to qualify apart from Montenegro.
Personally I didn't like Hungary but they have a good qualifying record and expected the song to do well.
Portugal should have stuck to the staging used in their National Final, it was far more compelling, I'm sure they would have qualified otherwise.
Belarus I didn't expect to make it, but based on her performance I changed my mind and put ยฃ5 on her to qualify.
Although the performance was dreadful, I'm delighted for San Marino to make the final, maybe we won't be last after all.

We go again Thursday, I will post my forecasts later today after the Jury performance is completed.

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 16 May 2019, 10:46
by Soup Dragon
Semi Final #2 is tonight on BBC4 at 20:00

This semi is slightly easier to call, I'm fairly certain the top 5 in my list will qualify, but I cannot see any 100% non-qualifiers.
Although I have Ireland and Moldova in the last two spots I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them qualify.

1. Netherlands
2. Russia
3. Sweden
4. Malta
5. Azerbaijan
6. Norway
7. North Macedonia
8. Switzerland
9. Austria
10. Latvia

11. Romania
12. Denmark
13. Armenia
14. Albania
15. Lithuania
16. Croatia
17. Ireland
18. Moldova


Latvia is a bit of a wild card, it's actually 7-1 with the bookies to qualify, but it's the type of song that can do well when there are so many up tempo songs and power ballads. The Netherlands came 2nd with something similar to Latvia a few years back.

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 16 May 2019, 20:40
by hopeful traveller
Predictions:

01 Armenia #ARM ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ
03 Moldova #MDA ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ
04 Switzerland #CHE ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ
06 Romania #ROU ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด
07 Denmark #DNK ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ
08 Sweden #SWE ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช
13 Russia #RUS ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ
15 Norway #NOR ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด
16 The Netherlands #NLD ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
18 Azerbaijan #AZE ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ

Was very tough to predict. Chose not to go for Croatia in the end.

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 17 May 2019, 08:57
by Soup Dragon
Soup Dragon wrote: โ†‘
16 May 2019, 10:46
Semi Final #2 is tonight on BBC4 at 20:00

This semi is slightly easier to call, I'm fairly certain the top 5 in my list will qualify, but I cannot see any 100% non-qualifiers.
Although I have Ireland and Moldova in the last two spots I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them qualify.

1. Netherlands
2. Russia
3. Sweden
4. Malta
5. Azerbaijan
6. Norway
7. North Macedonia
8. Switzerland
9. Austria
10. Latvia

11. Romania
12. Denmark
13. Armenia
14. Albania
15. Lithuania
16. Croatia
17. Ireland
18. Moldova


Latvia is a bit of a wild card, it's actually 7-1 with the bookies to qualify, but it's the type of song that can do well when there are so many up tempo songs and power ballads. The Netherlands came 2nd with something similar to Latvia a few years back.
Got 8 out of 10 correct for the second semi, just Austria and Latvia missed out. Denmark didn't surprise me, but Albania was quite a shock.
Albania has been a fans favourite but I didn't think her performance was very good, it just gave me a headache!
I thought Malta was going to miss out, but you could see their relief when they were announced as the final qualifier.

It's been a good contest so far for the smaller countries, Malta, Switzerland, San Marino, Iceland. All have a poor record in recent years but it shows that if you send a half decent song you can still qualify.

I'm still rooting for Iceland to win, but the draw favours Australia (25/26), favourites Netherlands (12/26) have not been so favoured by the draw.

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 17 May 2019, 21:47
by xcooler123
I shall be doing my usual Twitter commentary tomorrow night, I go into the final blind so I can 'react' to it without pre-conceptions. Glad there is a bit of a mixed bag and I hope some outrageous performaces/staging/costumes/entourages/commentary for me to rate or slate! :D

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 18 May 2019, 21:31
by hopeful traveller
โ€ชI canโ€™t get through to vote for Switzerland. ๐Ÿ‘€ Omen?

Predictions:

โ€ฌMy predictions:

1 25 Australia #AUS ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ
2 24 Switzerland #CHE ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ
3 12 The Netherlands #NLD ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
4 09 Sweden #SWE ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช
5 11 Cyprus #CYP ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ
6 20 Azerbaijan #AZE ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ
7 22 Italy #ITA ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น
8 17 Iceland #ISL ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ
9 05 Russia #RUS ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ
10 03 Czech Republic #CZE ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ
11 15 Norway #NOR ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด
12 18 Estonia #EST ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช
13 13 Greece #GRE ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท
14 21 France #FRA ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
15 01 Malta #MLT ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น
16 06 Denmark #DNK ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ
17 23 Serbia #SRB ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ
18 19 Belarus #BLR ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ
19 26 Spain #ESP ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
20 02 Albania #ALB ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
21 14 Israel #ISR ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
22 07 San Marino #SMR ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ
23 08 North Macedonia #MKD ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ
24 10 Slovenia #SVN ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ
25 16 United Kingdom #GBR ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง
26 04 Germany #DEU ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 21 May 2019, 21:12
by Soup Dragon
Actual Results of First Semi Final (in brackets), against my original prediction.

1 (3). Iceland
2 (1). Australia
3 (5). Greece
4 (12). Hungary
5 (9). Cyprus
6 (15). Portugal
7 (2). Czech Republic
8 (4). Estonia
9 (13). Belgium
10 (11). Poland

11 (7). Serbia
12 (10). Belarus
13 (6). Slovenia
14 (8). San Marino

15 (14). Georgia
16 (17). Finland
17 (16). Montenegro

Song that I overrated most = Portugal 9 places lower
Song that i underrated most = Slovenia 7 places higher

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 21 May 2019, 21:20
by Soup Dragon
Actual Results of Second Semi Final (in brackets), against my original prediction.

1 (1). Netherlands
2 (6). Russia
3 (3). Sweden
4 (8). Malta
5 (5). Azerbaijan
6 (7). Norway
7 (2). North Macedonia
8 (4). Switzerland
9 (17). Austria
10 (15). Latvia

11 (13). Romania
12 (10). Denmark
13 (16). Armenia
14 (9). Albania
15 (11). Lithuania
16 (14). Croatia
17 (18). Ireland
18 (12). Moldova

Song that I overrated most = Austria 8 places lower
Song that i underrated most = Moldova 6 places higher

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 23 May 2019, 12:27
by Soup Dragon
What a fiasco the voting on this year's Eurovision has turned into.

Two jurors gave thier result's in reverse in the two semi-finals, had they voted correctly the results of both semi finals would have chaged.
In the first semi final Poland would have qualified instead of Denmark.
In the second semi final Lithuania would have qualified instead of Belarus.

If this wasn't bad enough, the Belarusian jury were disqualified after revealing how they voted in the semi-final, so the EBU had to then enter "Aggregated Results" based on countries with similar voting records to Belarus. The problem is that the auditors who compiled the results also made the mistake of putting them in reverse order, hence Israel got 12 points from Belarus when in fact they should have been ranked 26th and got Nul points.
The EBU should have spotted this error immediately as the results stood out like a sore thumb.

The results have now been amended, but the bookies will have already paid out on the original result. Now the result is amended several positions have changed, Norway drop from 5th to 6th and are replaced by Sweden. Malta went up from 16th to 14th overall, passing France & Slovenia in the process. There are so many different bets involved which are now impacted by the amended scores, Top Scandinavian Country, Top 5 Finish, Top 15 Finish, etc....
I assume that the bookies will have to now pay out on the amended results as well?

Re: Eurovision 2019

Posted: 23 May 2019, 15:29
by Going Underground
Hopefully Beer Baron will get paid out then - he had some big bets on Sweden....