re:the draw

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palkanetoijala31

Re: re:the draw

Post by palkanetoijala31 »

No just using up the station names for a bit of fun first person to guess the station name drawn out of the hat on june 1st out of 57 gets 10 points for example.the same for each day until 30th.
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hwolge
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Re: re:the draw

Post by hwolge »

Does this imply that you won't reveal the content of the 56 left over eggs on the day? I smell potential manipulation here... :wink:
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palkanetoijala31

Re: re:the draw

Post by palkanetoijala31 »

I could empty all of the 57 eggs that were not not used to ensure a fair draw was carried afterwards i suppose.
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hwolge
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Re: re:the draw

Post by hwolge »

I guess offering it would in reality be good enough.... After all, we'd probably trust you anyway!
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tubeguru
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Re: re:the draw

Post by tubeguru »

Time for an independent adjudicator methinks ... :)
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palkanetoijala31

Re: re:the draw

Post by palkanetoijala31 »

Sounds like u dont trust me Mr Tubeguru :(
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tubeguru
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Re: re:the draw

Post by tubeguru »

Did I say that?
One thing only do I know, and that is that I know nothing - Socrates.

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palkanetoijala31

Re: re:the draw

Post by palkanetoijala31 »

Not in words no but implied independant adjudicator means u cant trust me on merit alone. :(
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tubeguru
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Re: re:the draw

Post by tubeguru »

It doesn't necessarily mean that. Most independent adjucidators are appointed to ensure that fair play is seen to be done, not because people think that foul play WILL be done.

Anyway, it doesn't really matter what I think because I'm not involved in any of this.
One thing only do I know, and that is that I know nothing - Socrates.

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palkanetoijala31

Re: re:the draw

Post by palkanetoijala31 »

This is a link to a random drawing of the kinder eggs to prove said facts.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNMuowqaa1A
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hwolge
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Re: re:the draw

Post by hwolge »

Great video, Andi!

After watching it, the matematician/statistician/drawer in me makes a few observations:

* As a "proof" of all eggs holding different stations, I think the video falls short. Obviously, lots of manipulation can take place afterwards...
* Anyone dare to guess the maximum number of eggs one could draw on random (putting them back afterwards) before the accumulated risk of hitting the same one twice goes above 50%? (Not putting them back immediately would of course had been a better method anyway). Maybe there was a retake even?
* Do I have to be blindfolded since I now know the colour of 3 of the eggs of three of the stations? Or will there be some other obfuscation method?

Regardless, I'm happily looking forward to executing my randomising duty next Friday!
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:) Official record holder in the 2008 Guinness Book of Records, pg 199 :)
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Going Underground
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Re: re:the draw

Post by Going Underground »

Andi, you are going to have to paint all the egg shells the same colour now...... :lol:
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palkanetoijala31

Re: re:the draw

Post by palkanetoijala31 »

It was just to prove that there were different names in each capsule and my father did change them afterwards does anybody have a velvet bag.?
mps247
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Re: re:the draw

Post by mps247 »

hwolge wrote:* Anyone dare to guess the maximum number of eggs one could draw on random (putting them back afterwards) before the accumulated risk of hitting the same one twice goes above 50%? (Not putting them back immediately would of course had been a better method anyway). Maybe there was a retake even?
42 draws I believe for 57 eggs.
jbom1

Re: re:the draw

Post by jbom1 »

42 draws I believe for 57 eggs.
I'm sure it's much quicker than that. I have the probability falling below 50% on the 10th egg.

p(all unique after n draws) = (57/57)*(56/57)*(55/57)*(54/57) ..... *((58-n)/57)

p(1) = 1.000
p(2) = 0.982
P(3) = 0.948
p(4) = 0.898
p(5) = 0.835
p(6) = 0.762
p(7) = 0.682
p(8) = 0.598
p(9) = 0.514
p(10) = 0.433
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