2011 Formula One Predictions

[Root]

I didn't watch the whole race and I'm not going to have time to do the scores today, so look out for them tomorrow. Been enjoying Finnish Juhannus, midsummer, for the last few days.

[Root]

The results are in, and Sam is the winner this time around, scoring 151 points. Well done to her Scrxisi keeps his overall lead and hits a nice, round 1000 points.

I'll watch the race highlights tonight, but I have seen the first lap and the last eight laps already, and it seems like there weren't many highlights in between. Yet another boring race in Valencia - when will it be dropped from the season?

The next round, Britain, should be a bit more interesting, as "blown diffusers" are no longer permitted. It could just as well be a help to Red Bull as a hindrance, but it could make things a little less predictable. In the round just gone, all but one of us correctly picked the top five drivers, and all but one of us knew Vettel was going to win. So fingers crossed that things will be mixed up a bit. The entry form is available here, and the deadline is Thursday the 7th of July, a week and a half from now.

[dudey]

Yet another boring race in Valencia - when will it be dropped from the season?

Far from that happening, it seems we are stuck with it for a number of years, with a deal apparently done to host a race until 2021. They talked to Bernie Ecclestone on the grid and he seemed delighted about the place, and when pushed on whether the rumours of Barcelona being dropped from the calendar in favour of a single Spanish GP in Valencia, he refused to give a clear answer, saying only that "we've been at Barcelona for a long time". Ominous, if you ask me.

[tubeguru]

I'm dropping down the rankings here. It's not easy trying to predict these races this year.

[Root]

Yet another boring race in Valencia - when will it be dropped from the season?

Far from that happening, it seems we are stuck with it for a number of years, with a deal apparently done to host a race until 2021. They talked to Bernie Ecclestone on the grid and he seemed delighted about the place, and when pushed on whether the rumours of Barcelona being dropped from the calendar in favour of a single Spanish GP in Valencia, he refused to give a clear answer, saying only that "we've been at Barcelona for a long time". Ominous, if you ask me.

I wouldn't be very sad to see Barcelona disappear, really, though it is a bit more exciting than Valencia. I think it's stupid that Spain currently have two races and a country like France doesn't have any. I know the European GP has always allowed a country to have two races, such as Germany or Britain in the past, but with the calendar increasingly crowded I think it's time it was banished. Bernie just seems to be on a street race kick at the moment, the fool.

I've been thinking of having two separate prediction game "championships", one for the first half of the season and another for the second half. The overall score would still decide the final victor, but having interim winners might encourage some other people to start taking part (like you, Matt? Or someone who has stopped entering, like Mullardo) who would otherwise not want to do so because of the huge deficit they would start with. The first half would end after Hungary, when there is a four-week break for the teams to close their factories. Either that, or an alternative winner who is found by comparing everyone's best five races only. Or do we not need any extra gimmicks? What does everyone think?

[Root]

I've been looking at the season statistics so far, and they inspired me to pose a few questions. These are not the kind of things I expect anyone to know off the top of their head, and they're all available on the internet if you care to look, so don't bother PMing me or anything. Just have a guess and see if you were right - answers are at the bottom in tiny text, copy and paste them somewhere to read them They might even be of use to you in the predictions competition!


1. Apart from the six drivers of the "new" teams (Lotus, Virgin, HRT) and de la Rosa, which F1 driver is yet to score a point this season?
2. Which two drivers are yet to finish in the same position twice this season?
3. Which three drivers have scored points in every race this season?
4. Outside of the "big five" (Vettel, Webber, Hamilton, Button, Alonso), which driver has finished in the points most times this season?
5. Outside of the "big five", which driver has been the most consistent, based on standard deviations in finishing positions? (It's not the same as no. 4)
6. Webber and Button are currently level on points, but which of them has the higher average (mean) finishing position?
7. Which driver has finished in the points exactly once this season?
8. Which Mercedes driver (Schumacher, Rosberg) has achieved the higher finishing position in a race this season?
9. Who has more podium finishes, Red Bull or the other 11 teams combined?
10. Who is the highest ranking driver in the WDC standings not to have finished on the podium this season?

Answers:
1. Maldonado | 2. Petrov, Schumacher | 3. Vettel, Webber, Button | 4. Kobayashi | 5. Buemi | 6. Webber | 7. Perez | 8. Rosberg | 9. Equal | 10. Massa

[Starkey7]

I don't know anything about motor racing, but I think that that is a smashing idea for "displaying" the answers to a quiz. We should continue doing this.

[Root]

^ Thanks

Reminder: British GP picks should be submitted by the end of today. A couple of players are yet to do so. Link.

[Root]

I don't have time for a full write-up right now, but here's the link to the British GP results. Hopefully the stewards won't change the final order. If they do, I won't be able to update it until Wednesday evening at the earliest.

Here's the next entry form too. I will put Daniel Ricciardo in when I get the chance, but I doubt anyone will be picking him anyway, so that's hopefully not a problem.

[Root]

I suppose you've all forgotten that there's a Grand Prix this weekend? Get your picks in by the end of the day, everyone!

Seeing as I'm the only one to have done so until now, I'll extend the deadline until the start of FP1 at 09:00 tomorrow morning.

The link is in my signature. And by the by, I haven't been bothered to put Ricciardo in yet, so you'll have to ask me if you are really crazy enough to want to put a Hispania driver in the top ten.

[tubeguru]

It's getting a bit predictable this season now things have settled down.

Having said that, Ferrari may start coming back slowly now the diffuser row has "blown" up again. See what I did there?

[Root]

Yes, very good.

I added the mean scores to the overall standings last time around so that we could see how predictable each race was - with seven or eight of us participating, it ought to be a pretty good indicator. If the races are predictable, between us we will score more points, I think. The highest, second highest and fourth highest mean scores all came in consecutive rounds, 3-4-5 (China through Spain). Britain had the third highest mean score, but it seems like that early part of the season was easier to predict than the more recent races, which included the hectic and low-scoring Canada and Monaco.

Then again, you got your personal high score in the British GP, Neil, so perhaps you're on to something.

[tubeguru]

Yes, but Button retired, so had he finished in his predicted position, (and everyone below him in my predictions moving down one position) would I have scored more?

[Root]

No.

Here's my reading of it: Button was fifth before the round of pit stops in which he retired began. If he had finished fifth, where you had predicted him to finish, you would have scored an extra 25 points for his position, but all the drivers below him would have moved further away from the positions you had predicted for them, costing you 35 points, for a net loss of 10 points. The majority of the lost points come from the fact Michael Schumacher, who scored you 18 points, would have finished 11th in the hypothetical scenario and would therefore have scored you nothing at all.

[Root]

Well, well. Two surprising results today: one in the race - which I thought was brilliant - and another in the predictions.

Congratulations to The Raven, taking part for the first time and immediately beating the rest of us by a seven-point margin.

The full list of results is here. Scrxisi extends his lead in the overall standings by a few points.

The next round is Hungary, as soon as next weekend! So here's the entry form. Get your picks in by the end of Thursday.