2011 Formula One Predictions

[Root]

Hello all,

Last season eight of us took part in Motorsport.com's Pick 6 competition, forming a Tube Challenge group. A few people stopped entering part-way through the season, but by and large it was a success, and I think very enjoyable.

Unfortunately the competition is no longer being run on that website this year; instead, I decided that we could look after the running of it ourselves.

Here are the rules, in essence the same as last year. They look long, but they're pretty simple, and if you played last year you don't really need to read them. The only real change is a twist, marked in red.

Objective

• To predict ("pick") the top ten finishing drivers for each Grand Prix of the 2011 Formula One season.

How to participate

• The first thing you must do is register for the competition. This can be done by sending me a PM or by emailing me at ollie.jl(at)gmail.com.
• In your registration message, you should include a keyword which you will use to identify yourself when making predictions. This can be any word you like, just NOT the same as your tubeforum password. Keep it to yourself once you've chosen it, so that no-one else enters fraudulent picks on your behalf.
• At the conclusion of one Grand Prix weekend, an entry form for the next one will be made available in this thread, at the same time as the scores are published. You can ask me to email you if you feel that you need an extra reminder.
• On the entry form, you should enter your tubeforum username and your keyword. You can then pick the drivers that you think will finish in each of the top ten positions in the Grand Prix race.

Deadline for picks

• To keep things simple, the deadline will be midnight (British local time) on the day before the first practice session of the Grand Prix. In most cases the first practice takes place on a Friday, so the deadline will be 23:59:59 on a Thursday.
• If you wish to change your picks, just submit the entry form again, any time up to the deadline. Only your most recent picks will be scored.
• If you fail to submit picks for a particular Grand Prix, your picks for the previous round will be used, but they will only carry over once. If you have a good reason why you can't submit picks for future Grand Prix, contact me and you can arrange for your picks to carry over more than once.

Scoring

• You score points for each race based on how well your picks match the actual race results. For each driver that you picked, you score points based on where the driver finished versus where you predicted he'd finish:
  • Didn't finish in the top 10 - 0 points
  • Finished exactly where predicted - 25 points
  • Finished 1 place off from where predicted - 18 points
  • Finished 2 places off from where predicted - 15 points
  • Finished 3 places off from where predicted - 12 points
  • Finished 4 places off from where predicted - 10 points
  • Finished 5 places off from where predicted - 8 points
  • Finished 6 places off from where predicted - 6 points
  • Finished 7 places off from where predicted - 4 points
  • Finished 8 places off from where predicted - 2 points
  • Finished 9 places off from where predicted - 1 point
• For example, if you picked Alonso to come in 3rd and he did finish 3rd, you'd score 25 points, but if he finished 5th, you'd score 15 points. If he finished 11th, you'd score 0 points.
• Your total score for a race is the sum of the points scored for each driver in your pick.
• You are responsible for checking your own score for accuracy, though of course I'll endeavour to get everything right the first time.
• As an added twist, you can predict the drivers world champion alongside your first round picks. If you are correct, your season-ending score will be increased by (100 / number of players that made the correct prediction). So, for example, if you correctly picked Vettel to be the champion driver, and one other person made that prediction, both of your scores would be increased by 50 points. You must decide whether to pick one of the most likely winners and end up sharing your bonus, or pick an unfancied driver with the possibility of gaining the whole bonus for yourself!
• At the end of the season, the winner will be the the person with the highest total number of points.

Notes on the form

• You should not pick the same driver for more than one position in the same race. The form will not prevent you from doing so, but in the event that you do, only the lower score of the two positions will be counted towards your total.
• The one exception to the above rule is for "Other (reserve driver)". Rather than offering the full list of reserve drivers, I have just created a single entry to cover all of them. Thus you can pick it more than once if you want to, but I think you'd be wasting your pick. Once a reserve driver has taken part in a Grand Prix, their name will be added to the main list and will no longer score points as "Other (reserve driver)" for the rest of the season.
• I'll be taking part and making my predictions as soon as the form opens, so I can't change them based on other people's entries. Once the round is finished and scored, everyone's predictions will be made available.
• All times on the form are British local time, GMT for now, BST in the summer, do I really need to explain how it works?

And finally, I'd just like to add that you can invite friends who aren't on the forum to take part. They should register by emailing me at the address given above.

If there are any queries or feedback about the rules, now's the time

[Root]

Figured this should be in a separate post so as to stand out.

The form for entering your Australian Grand Prix picks (and your WDC prediction) is now open, but remember to contact me for a keyword first!

The deadline for entries is midnight on Thursday the 24th of March.

[dudey]

Hats off to Ollie! This is very impressive!

[Root]

Thanks Matt - will you be entering?

To the other people that took part last year but haven't yet registered this year, I hope you've just all been busy and will remember to sign up by next Thursday at the latest. New players are more than welcome too

The winner's prize will be a drink from me if and when I next see them! I already owe one to somebody from the World Cup sweepstake winner, but I'm not in the same country as most of you very often...

[greatkingrat]

I'll bump this thread in case anyone else was planning to enter and hasn't got round to it yet.

[tubeguru]

Will be throwing together my entry tonight.

[Root]

The deadline has passed, and there are eight players taking part in the first round. I was hoping for a few more, but some people who showed an interest, both on and off the forum, didn't enter. But I'm not unhappy with eight, so thank you to those who are playing. Your reward for taking part from the beginning is the chance to score bonus points through your WDC prediction at the end of the season.

Speaking of which, I can reveal that there are four separate predictions for the Drivers Championship. Two drivers have each been picked three times, and two others have each been picked once. You'll have to wait until the last race to find out who they are though After the Australian GP has finished, the scores spreadsheet will be published with everyone's predictions for the race, but there's nothing to stop anyone revealing theirs early if you want to have a chat about the racing in general.

[tubeguru]

Come on Paul di Resta ...

[mullardo]

I have forgotten mine already

I've forgotten my passcode already

[moley]

We are GO!

[Sam]

What a great start to the season

[tubeguru]

Did I win?

[palkanetoijala31]

Who Who Who Who Who Who Who who Who Who Who Knows

but ur boy Paul di resta did well for his first gp.

[Root]

Anyone who forgets their passcode or predictions can ask me for a reminder, and I'll try to find out whether there is a way to make the form display a confirmation that includes that data. It may or may not be possible; I'm not sure.

Here are the results for the first round. Congratulations to tubeguru for getting the highest score, and mullardo for being the only one to pick Vettel as the winner. I've tried to be accurate with the scores, obviously, but please consider it your own responsibility to bring any mistakes in your own score to my attention

My thoughts on the race: not a classic, but not boring by any means. The DRS system didn't seem to be that effective, and the winning car didn't even have KERS on-board, which is fine by me; I think the sport would be a farce if they produced a guaranteed overtaking move every time they were used. I'm really glad that McLaren were competitive, which I say as a fan of the two British drivers, but also because it will make the races more competitive. Ferrari and, particularly, Mercedes were worryingly off the pace. I think Vettel could walk the first handful of races; he's proven himself to be a qualifying expert, and with the Red Bull's pace of the line there might be no catching him. His lead after one lap today was some two-and-a-half seconds, really incredible.

[tubeguru]

Get in!