As our attempt today didn't succeed, it is time for my 'Plan B' to come into effect. This is to try every day this week to break the record. My thinking is that I can't be unlucky five days in a row As Andi has already proven that doing two full attempts in two days is physically ultra-demanding, I will only compete the following day if I have abandoned by lunchtime the previous day.
Therefore, I will presumably see Nigel at a certain leafy neighbourhood's station tomorrow morning. Wish me luck...
Held some Alternative Challenge records for a long time.
Doesn't any more.
al wrote:My thinking is that I can't be unlucky five days in a row
Wish me luck...
I am very happy to wish you luck, but don't you think that the route is more important than luck? Hopefully you have a good one, or it will be five wasted days!
Root wrote:
I am very happy to wish you luck, but don't you think that the route is more important than luck? Hopefully you have a good one, or it will be five wasted days!
A good route is important, but sadly it counts for squat if the network disintegrates around you!
Held some Alternative Challenge records for a long time.
Doesn't any more.
al wrote:My thinking is that I can't be unlucky five days in a row ....
I suppose that statistically (and very generally) you have a 50/50 chance of each day being a "good" day or a "bad" day. So there is a very good chance that each day will be bad. Using the old "it can't be bad five days in a row" theory is risky, as there are many examples in life of bad runs or streaks.
Take football - it's easy for your team to lose five matches in a row, regardless of how well they played on the day. Before the first of those five matches it would be easy for the fans to say "we can't lose all of our next five games - we have to win one of them", but it don't work like that.
Good luck.
One thing only do I know, and that is that I know nothing - Socrates.
Champion of bugger all, 2004 to 2022
Member of sweet FA
greatkingrat wrote:It would be very annoying if Friday turns out to be a perfect day, but you are so tired from earlier in the week that you can't make the runs.
Indeed, but I'm slightly fed up picking 'random' dates and not even getting close, so I thought I'd try a different approach. I can always go back to the previous methodology if it proves unworkable and/or unsuccesful.
Held some Alternative Challenge records for a long time.
Doesn't any more.
Don't forget the Cannon Street Run VI, which looks like Thursday if you have aborted before 1845hrs
Twice former full network GWR holder and former Zone 1 Olympic and World Record holder with The Raven and Soupie Tube personality of the year 2009 Twice Winter Olympic Biathlon Gold Medalist with The Beer Baron 2008 All Lines Olympic Gold
al wrote:My thinking is that I can't be unlucky five days in a row ....
I suppose that statistically (and very generally) you have a 50/50 chance of each day being a "good" day or a "bad" day. So there is a very good chance that each day will be bad. Using the old "it can't be bad five days in a row" theory is risky, as there are many examples in life of bad runs or streaks.
If there really is a 1/2 chance of getting a bad day, then before the week starts, there's only a 1/32 chance of all five being bad. A 31/32 chance of getting one good day sounds good to me, though I don't think I'm crazy enough to break my body over five attempts to achieve it.
Having said that, your theory is probably a bit more accurate than the numbers would suggest, as problems that happen on one day could easily re-occur (say, bad weather) or have knock-on effects. And all the other usual caveats apply: a bad day could turn out to be good if you avoid the problems and get the odd negative time connection etc. It's worth remembering that even if you get tails one day, you still only have a fifty-fifty chance of getting heads the next day
Knowing the tube, there is an extremely good chance that you will have "bad" runs on each day. I mean, look at all the attempts that people do which end in abortions or non-record times. Your really do need to get that small chance of success to fall into place. But as you're out five days in a row, there's a chance that you might get lucky on one of those days. But the overall odds of success are against you if we're honest.
One thing only do I know, and that is that I know nothing - Socrates.
Champion of bugger all, 2004 to 2022
Member of sweet FA
Anybody heard any more from Al? Twenty minutes can be caught up. I think he sensibly avoided the mess I got caught up in. Though by around 4pm it was getting rather unpleasantly warm (for charging round the tube, that is).
As Andi has already proven that doing two full attempts in two days is physically ultra-demanding, I will only compete the following day if I have abandoned by lunchtime the previous day.
. I'm only guessing, but I think our paths will diverge at the first out of station run.
