How much is luck?
Posted: 22 Dec 2017, 14:17
After a lot of so far purely theoretical planning, I found myself wondering how great a part in an FNC completion, let alone a fast time, is played by luck -- I mean specifically good luck and not "not-bad luck".
Allow me to explain. By "not-bad luck" I mean avoidance of closures, cancellations and delays and other things beyond your control that would harmfully impact your performance, whereas by "good luck" I mean unexpected things that actually work in your favour: a crucial train being a couple of minutes late so you can catch it instead of waiting for 10 minutes, or a train diverted to where you wanted to go in the first place, avoiding the need to change. (Digression: If a train is diverted, say a service from Edgware Road sent to Richmond instead of Wimbledon, do the rules allow it to be used? Does it sill count as "scheduled public transport" re the stations to Richmond?)
It seems clear that "not-bad luck" is very important for being able to get a completion within one operating day, and absolutely essential for a fast time, but what about "good luck" as defined above? It's difficult to quantify, I know, but I'm interested in any experience-based views on this.
JMan
Allow me to explain. By "not-bad luck" I mean avoidance of closures, cancellations and delays and other things beyond your control that would harmfully impact your performance, whereas by "good luck" I mean unexpected things that actually work in your favour: a crucial train being a couple of minutes late so you can catch it instead of waiting for 10 minutes, or a train diverted to where you wanted to go in the first place, avoiding the need to change. (Digression: If a train is diverted, say a service from Edgware Road sent to Richmond instead of Wimbledon, do the rules allow it to be used? Does it sill count as "scheduled public transport" re the stations to Richmond?)
It seems clear that "not-bad luck" is very important for being able to get a completion within one operating day, and absolutely essential for a fast time, but what about "good luck" as defined above? It's difficult to quantify, I know, but I'm interested in any experience-based views on this.
JMan